Experts predict England at World Cup 2026: 'Failure to semi-finals is a disappointment'
Six The Athletic writers give their views on Thomas Tuchel's England ahead of their opener against Croatia — from semi-final hopes to concerns about a lack of depth in attack and defence.
Thomas Tuchel had a clear mission when he was appointed England's head coach at the end of 2024. After a series of failures, disappointments or heartbreaking defeats in the past, Tuchel was hired to end England's 60-year wait for a major men's international title.
There were high moments in his leadership and there were heavy failures as well. As England prepare to open their World Cup campaign against Croatia tomorrow, six The Athletic writers share their judgment and predictions for the team.
Jack Pitt-Brooke: Steady progress to semi-finals The quarter-finals are traditionally seen as success enough for England at the World Cup. But this time around, I expect them to make it to the final week of the tournament and probably end up in the semi-final against Argentina or Portugal in Atlanta.
England have a very strong backbone — and Declan Rice and Harry Kane have been two of the best players in the world in recent years. They had a perfect qualifying record and had a standout coach in the form of Tuchel. I expect them to win Group L and get through a difficult path, even surpassing Mexico in Mexico City and Brazil in Miami.
But I worry if this team lacks quality in the final third, especially if Kane is limited. We have already seen that England do not function without Kane. Tuchel chose a squad that seemed more in tune with the physical style and set pieces. Cole Palmer and Phil Foden are left at home — and I doubt the team idea will run out at some point.
Oliver Kay: Where are the 'other' players? I am not overly optimistic when it comes to England. I was a bit hopeful at the last World Cup because of the gradual development under Gareth Southgate, but this time around I feel again that, if there is a winning formula, it needs to be found as the tournament goes on.
That could happen under a tactical genius like Tuchel. But I'm not sure about the direction he took — it was focused on a fast and violent style. Historically, the English have loved this style, but it doesn't seem to optimize the strengths of this more technical generation, especially when the schedule heats up in the North American summer heat.
We've been waiting years for more technical players and for me it's counter-intuitive to go into the World Cup without Trent Alexander-Arnold, Adam Wharton, Foden or Palmer. I understand the logic — they've had difficult times at the club — but leaving out these four looks like the conservatism that has held England back for so long.
I believe they will make it to the quarter-finals; they have a very strong squad, a world-class centre-forward and one of the best coaches. But we often come home from tournaments complaining that England lack intelligent, creative players who can handle the ball and do something different in tight spaces.
Jay Harris: Elite option on offense, terror on defense I grew up seeing England always exit in the quarter-finals, and Southgate deserves credit for breaking that curse. Southgate's style is sometimes difficult to watch but he raises the bar — so no matter what, not reaching the semi-finals this summer should be considered a failure.
Arguably the best centre-forward in the world is Kane, while Rice and Jude Bellingham are elite central midfielders. Bukayo Saka has had problems with injuries in the past two seasons but remains a good option on the right flank. Morgan Rogers, Eberechi Eze and Ollie Watkins can make an impact from the bench.
The biggest concern is on defense. John Stones barely played for Manchester City last season, while Chelsea's Reece James missed nearly a month with a hamstring injury. Can James, who has a history of fitness issues, handle the rigorous tournament schedule?
<figure style="margin:2rem 0;overflow:hidden;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;background:#f9f9f9"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/athletic/uploads/wp/2026/06/14161652/GettyImages-2280968552-scaled-e1781468302795-1024x683.jpg" alt="Image" style="width:100%;height:auto;object-fit:contain" loading="lazy" /></figure>Some of Tuchel's decisions have been questioned, including the omission of Alexander-Arnold, Foden and Morgan Gibbs-White, but the inclusion of Djed Spence is more justified than it seems. Although Spence's form has been erratic, he excels in one-on-one situations against the best wingers — and that gives Tuchel confidence that he is prepared for all eventualities.
Cerys Jones: Same old, same story I expect the same as any England men's team in a big tournament. They'll go through the group (with maybe one sluggish 1-0 win), progress relatively comfortably through the round of 32 and round of 16, and struggle when facing more dynamic opponents with high-quality defenses — likely in the quarter-finals or semi-finals.
I'm not saying they lack talent; they have plenty of goalscorers and a solid defensive spine. So I'm not worried about the group stage. Even without some creative players, the attacking depth should be enough to rotate and bring new energy to the final third.
My problem is whether England can keep up with the more technical and fast passing teams, especially in the hot conditions. Rice and Elliot Anderson have impressive engines but their responsibilities will be heavy throughout the tournament. The availability of James and Stones is also a cause for concern — the defense might run out of energy against the best forward lines.
Tim Spiers: Tuchel needs to be smart England aren't perfect on paper, they don't have the best manager, and they traditionally struggle in hot conditions — so it's hard to make a strong argument that they'll win the World Cup. But they can sail deep into the knockout stages.
To win a World Cup you need a strong defense and I'm not convinced England have that yet. There is also concern in the wide forward areas. Their midfield is good.
They have the talent to go the distance and the firepower of Kane (and backup Watkins) is a big plus. They seem to lack the best XI compared to other teams, so Tuchel will have to be smart — proactive with substitutions and ruthless with selection.
Dan Sheldon: Hope for Kane, but too much hope is dangerous Tuchel has no hidden goal — to win the World Cup. But it is difficult to bypass Spain or Argentina, and France should be included in the list of those with a chance.
England should go through Group L and enter the round of 16 where they can play Mexico in Mexico City. The crowd at the Azteca for Mexico's opener against South Africa was amazing and it will affect if they meet.
To be successful, they rely heavily on Kane's goalscoring ability. There is a big gap between Kane and the other strikers in the squad — Ivan Toney and Watkins — so they need to make the most of their opportunities. Expect contributions from Bellingham and Saka as well. If they can't help and everyone depends on Kane, England's position will be difficult.
My heart says England will have a good tournament; in my mind, the round-of-16 is difficult with Azteca even though they have higher quality than Mexico.
Conclusion Overall, there is optimism around England reaching the semi-finals, but serious questions exist: a defense with fitness and game issues, a lack of depth and few creative options due to the omission of several technical players, and the heavy reliance on Harry Kane. Now Thomas Tuchel has the task at hand: prove whether his selection and tactics can take England beyond their former obsession — and end a 60-year wait for a major title.
