Small gap between Messi and Mbappé in the odds of the Golden Boot of the World Cup 2026

The FIFA World Cup 2026 has been the stage for the big stars — and a generational battle for the Golden Boot is clearly unfolding. Currently, Lionel Messi leads the list of top scorers with five goals, followed by Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland with four each.

These three were impressive on the same matchday when they scored multiple goals: they had two multi-goal performances in the group. That day, Mbappé opened the scoring for France, Haaland followed for Norway, and Messi netted a hat-trick against Algeria. The trio did it again on another day when they scored two goals each.

For historical context, Messi's five-goal haul equals the tally previously set for the Golden Boot in 2010 and 2006. The last ten-goal winner was Gerd Müller in 1970 — and with the times today's top players are showing, it doesn't sound impossible for someone to reach the double-digit tally again.

Look at the stakes: Messi is only slightly more favored to lead. On FanDuel, he is favored at +180, while on DraftKings he is at +185. At BetMGM, Messi and Mbappé are joint favorites at +175. Mbappé is at +220 on DraftKings and FanDuel.

There is an additional matter of the schedule: Messi has a one-goal advantage over Mbappé, but it should be noted that Argentina has already qualified in first place in the group and will play against Jordan — a match that is likely to be one-sided and could change dynamics if the coach chooses to rest Messi, who turns 39 on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, a big clash between Mbappé and Haaland is scheduled for this Friday—France vs. Norway—and with both teams having two wins, chances could be tighter for both strikers.

The odds for Haaland range widely: 5-to-1 at BetMGM, 7-to-1 at DraftKings and 13-to-1 at FanDuel. This suggests that if you believe Norway are contenders, Haaland has a good chance of scoring more goals; otherwise, he will struggle to catch up with Messi and Mbappé.

Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo also form an alternative threat. Kane featured two goals in the first game but did not score against Ghana; he is currently 6-to-1 on BetMGM and DraftKings, and 8-to-1 on FanDuel. Ronaldo, who had two goals against Uzbekistan after a heavy criticism for a poor start, is in the range of 10-to-1 to 18-to-1 depending on the bookie.

There are a few other names that flash: Jonathan David scored a hat-trick for Canada against Qatar, but Canada is not expected to go far in the tournament; Germany's Deniz Undav has three goals but has yet to start regularly. There's also Folarin Balogun of the United States who has shown potential but is still a long-shot in the betting books (up to 55-to-1 on FanDuel).

All in all, the numbers and odds show that the battle for the Golden Boot at World Cup 2026 is very winnable and tight. The next matches and the coaches' decisions about keeping the stars on the pitch will likely dictate who emerges the most successful at the end of the tournament.

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